Jun
14

Is there a way to transfer Kuwait Dinar to Philippine Pesos, and avoid the declining exchange rate?

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dinar exchange

Keith H asked:

The Kuwait Dinar has lost value against the Philippine Peso for the past three years. How can an oil rich countries currency loose value against an relatively poor country? Is there a way to move Kuwait Dinar into the Philippines without constantly loosing increasing value of the Dinar as compared to the Pesos.

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1 Comments

1

Currency speculation is very complicated. The Phillipines has a floating currency and kuwait’s currency is a weighted currency basket approach (and I expect its heavily weighted with US Dollars, which are declining). The value of a currency is based on the demand for that currency and to some extent the risk of accepting that currency and having it be worth someting in the future (the later being an issue in inflationary countries which Kuwait and Phillipines are not). Additionally, the relative risk of investing in Kuwait versus the Phillipines can be reflected in the currency value as well.
Kuwait is losing ‘value’ relative to the phillipines because they have tied their money to the US Dollar and the Euro (and a few others). The global economy is expected to slow and this impacts relative currency values. The Phillipine’s money is floating and can conceivably go up and down dramatically relative to the Euro and US Dollar.
To hedge against this currency devaluation, one can convert their kuwaiti money into phillipino money, or invest in phillipino-pegged investments. But know this: your taking your money out of a stable currency and into a less stable currency. There is a great deal of risk involved. As a speculator, you have to ask not “what has happened in the past (phippipine value increases and kuwaiti value decreases)?” but what is going to happen: “Will the US dollar continue to decline or has it reached bottom?” If it has reached bottom, you want to have a lot of US dollars on that day. If it hasn’t, then you’ll want your cash in some other country that is likely to expand their economy safely.

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